Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
